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Assessing and promoting civil and minority rights in South Africa.

[Source: Daily Maverick by Stephen Grootes.]

When trying to put together the complicated puzzle that is the ANC’s leadership election equation, it is important to assign values to your pieces. You need to know which way someone will go, and how much power they will have. The release on Friday night of the numbers of delegates each ANC province will be sending to the national conference now gives us much more information. While it is still far from clear what exactly will happen, we now know that the biggest piece, the player with the most weight, is probably going to be David Dabede Mabuza, the Premier of Mpumalanga and the ANC Chairman of that province. For those hoping for a wholesale cleanup and an end to corruption within the ANC and South Africa, this is probably bad news.

When looking through the numbers of delegates each ANC province will be sending to the national conference, the most obvious point to make is that Mpumalanga and North West have grown dramatically, and the Eastern Cape has slid down the list. It is no longer the second-biggest province, but the third, while Mpumalanga comes after KwaZulu-Natal. This is a testament to the efforts of David Mabuza in growing the numbers in his province, but is also an indication of what has happened in the Eastern Cape. It’s been hit by factional strife, first in its OR Tambo region, then in the Nelson Mandela Bay region, and then at its conference last week. In 2012, many of its branches failed to get through the audit process, which meant that they were not represented at the Mangaung conference. It is possible that many of the people who belonged to those branches simply gave up their membership or let it lapse over time.

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South Africa at a Glance
56 500 000 (mid 2017 estimate)
5.1% y/y in September 2017 (CPI) & +4.2% y/y in August 2017 (PPI)
2.5% q/q for the 2nd quarter of 2017
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