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Assessing and promoting civil and minority rights in South Africa.

[Source: Moneyweb by Ryk van Niekerk.]

The economic mountain Cyril Ramaphosa’s government must climb suddenly feels a lot higher.

The 2.2% GDP decline in the first quarter (nearly four times worse than the consensus forecast) was a punch in the stomach. The immediate investor confidence spike that followed Ramaphosa’s election as ANC president hasn’t translated into an economic resurgence.

Several economists still believe that a resurgence will become more visible in the second half of the year and that an annual growth rate of 1.5% remains achievable. This seems optimistic in light of the first quarter performance. Some commentators remarked that the -2.2% is proof of a fading Ramaphoria. The number, however, must be seen as a Zuma legacy.

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South Africa at a Glance
57 700 000 (mid 2018 estimate)
5.2% y/y in November 2018 (CPI) & +6.8 y/y in November 2018 (PPI)
2.2% q/q (3rd quarter of 2018)
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