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Assessing and promoting civil and minority rights in South Africa.

[Source: Bloomberg by Paul Wallace.]

Most analysts following South Africa expect it to lose its final investment-grade rating. But they disagree over when that might happen and what the consequences would be.

The gloomiest reckon it would trigger more than $10 billion of outflows and cause the rand to weaken to its lowest level in almost four years.

Others say investors have already priced in a downgrade and South African assets may even rise in the aftermath, especially if sentiment toward emerging markets stays strong.

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South Africa at a Glance
58 780 000 (mid 2019 estimate)
3.7% y/y in October 2019 (CPI) & +4.1 y/y in September 2019 (PPI)
3.1% q/q (2nd quarter of 2019)
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